Relationship between the implied exchange rate and consumer price index in Venezuela. Period 1989-2014
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Keywords
exchange rate policy, exchange rate and consumer price index
Abstract
This article aims to analyze the relationship between the change in the implicit exchange rate and the consumer price index in Venezuela from 1989 to 2014. The research was correlational documentary, analytical and interpretative, based on hermeneutics; using monetary aggregates BCV, analyzing the one hundred (100) last variations price index consumer, the implicit exchange rate and the correlation between them, observing as there is a similar variation between the two variables, with an average variation inter quarterly 7.87% for the inflation rate and 8.69% for implicit exchange rate, according to the level of monetary liquidity, divided by the level of international reserves, both variables having a linear Pearson correlation of 0.93 ; which denotes a high degree of association between annual percentage change in the exchange rate and the growth of the inflation rate. All this as a result of an increase in monetary liquidity, without the contribution due to the level of international reserves for the case of the exchange rate means, whereby an unofficial currency devaluation is generated, a general price increase of imported products, declining real wages, imbalance in the balance of payments, due to increased capital flight by the loss of function of value of the Bolivar. Finally we proceeded to perform linear regression analysis to build a function to prospect the behavior of the inflation rate based according to the percentage change in the implicit rate of change, where Concluding statistical evidence is obtained, with data and period studied, a positive correlation between the rate of actual inflation and predicted.
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Referencias Electrónicas
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