Issue

2023

Copyright (c) 2023 Karol Cervantes De La Torre, Adel Mendoza Mendoza, Enrique De La Hoz Domínguez

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Forecasting infant survival rates and life expectancy in Latin American countries: 2016-2019

https://doi.org/10.17081/innosa.161
Karol Cervantes De La Torre
Universidad Libre. Colombia
Adel Mendoza Mendoza
Universidad del Atlántico, Colombia
Enrique De La Hoz Domínguez
Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, Colombia

Corresponding Author(s) : Adel Mendoza Mendoza

adelmendoza@uniatlantico.edu.co

Ciencia e Innovación en Salud, 2023

Abstract

Background: In recent years, the survival rate of infants (neonatal and under-five) as well as life expectancy has increased globally, these levels have been increasing almost in a linear fashion with respect to countries' spending on health systems.


Methods: Retrospective descriptive research on health indicators. A prediction of infant survival rates and life expectancy at birth is made in 19 Latin American countries using classic polynomial regression models for the period 2016-2019. We used data from 2000 to 2015 from the World Health Organization and World Bank data repositories.


Results: The research results show that the models developed have an average R2 value of 0.9963 for Neonatal Survival Rate, 0.9965 for Survival Rate of children up to 5 years and 0.9599 for Life Expectancy, as well as very low values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) indicating a good fit of the models.


Conclusion: The proposed models can be used by the different countries of the region since the adjustment of the models is very good and the results obtained can serve as a basis for the different social and economic planning processes of a country.

Keywords

Pronóstico, Tasa de supervivencia infantil, Expectativa de vida
1.
Cervantes De La Torre K, Mendoza Mendoza A, De La Hoz Domínguez E. Forecasting infant survival rates and life expectancy in Latin American countries: 2016-2019. Ciencia e Innovación en Salud [Internet]. 2023 Mar. 6 [cited 2024 Nov. 25];. Available from: https://revistas.unisimon.edu.co/index.php/innovacionsalud/article/view/3880
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