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Copyright (c) 2021 Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez Velásquez, Signed Esperanza Prieto Bohórquez, Rubén Ernesto Caycedo Beltrán, Sandra Catalina Correa Herrera, Ribká Soracipa Muñoz, Javier Jattin Balcázar, John Alexander Muñoz
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Temporary prediction of the number of fatalities due to traffic accidents in Texas in the context of a random probabilistic walk
Corresponding Author(s) : Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez Velásquez
Ciencia e Innovación en Salud,
2021
Abstract
Background: Road traffic injuries are currently considered as an epidemic given the burden of morbimortality that is reported worldwide by this cause, which makes mandatory to forecast its behavior. Considering the above, it is seek to confirm the predictive capacity of a method that predicts the value of fatalities due to traffic accident lesions applied in the context of Texas, USA for the year 2015 by means of a probabilistic random walk. Methods: Texas’ annual number of fatalities from road traffic injuries reported by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) were analyzed in analogy to the probabilistic random walk to obtain a prediction for 2015. Results: it was observed that the behavior of this variable is compatible with the one analyzed by probabilistic random walk, which allowed to apply this methodology and obtain a prediction for 2015 with a success of 96.3 % with respect to the official value reported. Conclusions: probabilistic random walk predicts the behavior of apparently random variables along time with high precision, which allows to apply this method as a public health surveillance tool by complementarily evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to reduce the fatalities from road traffic injuries.
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- Spiegel MR, Schiller JJ, Srinivasan RA. Probabilidad y estadística. 3ra ed. Bogotá, Colombia: McGrawHill; 2009.
- Feynman RP, Leighton RB, Sands M. Probability. In: Physics Vol 1: Mechanics, radiation, and heat. Wilmington: Addison-Wesley Iberoamericana; 1964. p. 1–11.
- Laplace P. Ensayo filósofico sobre las probabilidades. Barcelona: Altaza; 1995. 12-15 p.
- Blanco L. Probabilidad, notas de clase. Bogotá, Colombia: Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística; 1996.
- Wiener N. Nonlinear problems in random theory. Cambridge: Technology Press; 1958.
- Cattoni D, Ozu M, Chara O. Ruidos en la naturaleza. In: ANALES AFA. 2004. p. 294–9.
- Goel NS, Richter-Dyn N. Stochastic models in biology. Elsevier; 2016.
- Nantulya V. The neglected epidemic: road traffic injuries in developing countries. BMJ. 2002; 324(7346): 1139–1141. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.324.7346.1139
- Híjar M. Utilidad del análisis geográfico en el estudio de las muertes por atropellamiento. Salud publica Mex. 2000; 42:188-193. https://www.scielosp.org/article/spm/2000.v42n3/188-193/
- Dultz L. Foltin, G, Simon R, Wall S, Levine D. Bholat O, et al. Vulnerable roadway users struck by motor vehicles at the center of the safest, large US city. Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery. 2013; 74: 1138–1145. DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e31827ab722
- Perez R, Hijar M, Celis A, Hidalgo E. El estado de las lesiones causadas por el tránsito en México: evidencias para fortalecer la estrategia mexicana de seguridad vial. Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, 2014; 30(5):911-925. https://www.scielo.br/j/csp/a/jW5NMTWw6RYkYkgd6ykrZhJ/?lang=es&format=pdf
- Nathens A, Jurkovich G, Cummings P, Rivara F, Maier R. The Effect of Organized Systems of Trauma Care on Motor Vehicle Crash Mortality. JAMA. 2000;283(15):1990-1994. DOI:10.1001/jama.283.15.1990
- Rodríguez J, Correa C. Predicción temporal de la epidemia de dengue en Colombia: dinámica probabilista de la epidemia. Rev. Salud pública. 2009; 11 (3): 443-453. http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0124-00642009000300013
- Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Correa C, Pérez C, Soracipa M. Dinámica de la epidemia de malaria en Colombia: predicción probabilística temporal. Rev. Salud pública. 2017;91-100. DOI: 10.15446/rsap.v19n1.48203
- Rodríguez J, Oliveros D, Soracipa Y, Bernal L, Correa C, Abrahem L, et al. Análisis probabilista con caminata al azar del número de personas viviendo con VIH mundialmente. Rev. Fac. Nac. Salud Pública. 2018; 36(1):27-33. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/rfnsp/v36n1/0120-386X-rfnsp-36-01-00027.pdf
- NHTSA. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) Encyclopedia. http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
- Krauss L. Miedo a la Física: una guía para perplejos. Santiago: Editorial Andrés Bello. 1996.
- Huang H, Yin Q, Schwebel DC, Li L, Hu G. Examining road traffic mortality status in China: a simulation study. PLoS One. 2016;11, e0153251. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153251
- García S, Bumbaucher A, Deublein M, Adey BT. Predicting road traffic accidents using artificial neural network models. Infrastruct. Asset Manage. 2018; 5, 132–144. DOI: 10.1680/jinam.17.00028
- Jayatilleke AU, Jayatilleke A. 371 Prediction of Road traffic crashes (RTC) in Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2025. Inj. Prev. 2016;22, A136. DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042156.371
- Mehmandar M, Soori H, Mehrabi Y. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. Int. J. Crit. Illn. Inj. Sci. 2016;6, 74–78. DOI: 10.4103/2229-5151.183017
- Zolala F, Haghdoost AA, Ahmadijouybari T, Salari A, Bahrampour A, Baneshi MR. Forecasting the trend of traffic accident mortality in West Iran. J. Health Scope. 2016;5, e31336. https://www.magiran.com/paper/1580423?lang=en
- Deublein M, Schubert M, Adey BT, García B, 2015. A Bayesian network model to predict accidents on Swiss highways. Infrastruct. Asset Manage. 2015;2, 145–158. DOI: 10.1680/jinam.15.00008
- Rodriguez J, Jattin J, Soracipa Y. Probabilistic temporal prediction of the deaths caused by traffic in Colombia. Mortality caused by traffic prediction. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2020; 135:105332. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457519305603
- Rodríguez J, Correa C, Ortiz A, Páez J, Cortés J, Soracipa Y, Ovalle A, Guzmán E, Castiblanco MA, Naranjo JD. MÉTODO DE “CAMINATA AL AZAR PROBABILÍSTICA” APLICADA A LA PREDICCIÓN DE MUERTES POR TRÁNSITO EN EL ESTADO DE FLORIDA. Medicina. 2019;41(1):18-27. https://revistamedicina.net/ojsanm/index.php/Medicina/article/view/1416
- Smith SK. Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future. University of Florida [Internet]. 2005. Disponible en: https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/sites/default/files/Research%20Reports/FloridaPop2005_0.pdf
- Lomia N, Berdzuli N, Sharashidze N, Sturua L, Pestvenidze E, Kereselidze M, Topuridze M, Stray-Pedersen B, Stray-Pedersen A. Socio-Demographic Determinants of Road Traffic Fatalities in Women of Reproductive Age in the Republic of Georgia: Evidence from the National Reproductive Age Mortality Study (2014). Int J Womens Health. 2020 Jul 13; 12:527-537. DOI: 10.2147/IJWH.S244437
- Nagata T, Takamori A, Berg HY, Hasselberg M. Comparing the impact of socio-demographic factors associated with traffic injury among older road users and the general population in Japan. BMC Public Health. 2012;12:887. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-887
- Einstein A. Principios de física teórica. En: Einstein A. Sobre la teoría de la relatividad y otras aportaciones científicas. Madrid: Sarpe; 1983:29-32.
- Rodríguez J. Dynamical systems applied to dynamic variables of patients from the intensive care unit (ICU): Physical and mathematical mortality predictions on ICU. J Med Med Sci. 2015;6(8):209-220.https://www.interesjournals.org/articles/dynamical-systems-applied-to-dynamic-variables-of-patients-from-the-intensive-care-unit-icu-physical-and-mathematical-mo.pdf
- Rodríguez J. Spatio-temporal probabilistic prediction of appearance and duration of malaria outbreaks in municipalities of Colombia. J Phys Conf Ser. 2019;1160:7. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1160/1/012018
- Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Ramírez LJ. A novel heart rate attractor for the prediction of cardiovascular disease. Informatics in Medicine Unlocked. 2019; 15:100174. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235291481930005X
References
Spiegel MR, Schiller JJ, Srinivasan RA. Probabilidad y estadística. 3ra ed. Bogotá, Colombia: McGrawHill; 2009.
Feynman RP, Leighton RB, Sands M. Probability. In: Physics Vol 1: Mechanics, radiation, and heat. Wilmington: Addison-Wesley Iberoamericana; 1964. p. 1–11.
Laplace P. Ensayo filósofico sobre las probabilidades. Barcelona: Altaza; 1995. 12-15 p.
Blanco L. Probabilidad, notas de clase. Bogotá, Colombia: Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística; 1996.
Wiener N. Nonlinear problems in random theory. Cambridge: Technology Press; 1958.
Cattoni D, Ozu M, Chara O. Ruidos en la naturaleza. In: ANALES AFA. 2004. p. 294–9.
Goel NS, Richter-Dyn N. Stochastic models in biology. Elsevier; 2016.
Nantulya V. The neglected epidemic: road traffic injuries in developing countries. BMJ. 2002; 324(7346): 1139–1141. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.324.7346.1139
Híjar M. Utilidad del análisis geográfico en el estudio de las muertes por atropellamiento. Salud publica Mex. 2000; 42:188-193. https://www.scielosp.org/article/spm/2000.v42n3/188-193/
Dultz L. Foltin, G, Simon R, Wall S, Levine D. Bholat O, et al. Vulnerable roadway users struck by motor vehicles at the center of the safest, large US city. Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery. 2013; 74: 1138–1145. DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e31827ab722
Perez R, Hijar M, Celis A, Hidalgo E. El estado de las lesiones causadas por el tránsito en México: evidencias para fortalecer la estrategia mexicana de seguridad vial. Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, 2014; 30(5):911-925. https://www.scielo.br/j/csp/a/jW5NMTWw6RYkYkgd6ykrZhJ/?lang=es&format=pdf
Nathens A, Jurkovich G, Cummings P, Rivara F, Maier R. The Effect of Organized Systems of Trauma Care on Motor Vehicle Crash Mortality. JAMA. 2000;283(15):1990-1994. DOI:10.1001/jama.283.15.1990
Rodríguez J, Correa C. Predicción temporal de la epidemia de dengue en Colombia: dinámica probabilista de la epidemia. Rev. Salud pública. 2009; 11 (3): 443-453. http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0124-00642009000300013
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Correa C, Pérez C, Soracipa M. Dinámica de la epidemia de malaria en Colombia: predicción probabilística temporal. Rev. Salud pública. 2017;91-100. DOI: 10.15446/rsap.v19n1.48203
Rodríguez J, Oliveros D, Soracipa Y, Bernal L, Correa C, Abrahem L, et al. Análisis probabilista con caminata al azar del número de personas viviendo con VIH mundialmente. Rev. Fac. Nac. Salud Pública. 2018; 36(1):27-33. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/rfnsp/v36n1/0120-386X-rfnsp-36-01-00027.pdf
NHTSA. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) Encyclopedia. http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
Krauss L. Miedo a la Física: una guía para perplejos. Santiago: Editorial Andrés Bello. 1996.
Huang H, Yin Q, Schwebel DC, Li L, Hu G. Examining road traffic mortality status in China: a simulation study. PLoS One. 2016;11, e0153251. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153251
García S, Bumbaucher A, Deublein M, Adey BT. Predicting road traffic accidents using artificial neural network models. Infrastruct. Asset Manage. 2018; 5, 132–144. DOI: 10.1680/jinam.17.00028
Jayatilleke AU, Jayatilleke A. 371 Prediction of Road traffic crashes (RTC) in Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2025. Inj. Prev. 2016;22, A136. DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042156.371
Mehmandar M, Soori H, Mehrabi Y. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. Int. J. Crit. Illn. Inj. Sci. 2016;6, 74–78. DOI: 10.4103/2229-5151.183017
Zolala F, Haghdoost AA, Ahmadijouybari T, Salari A, Bahrampour A, Baneshi MR. Forecasting the trend of traffic accident mortality in West Iran. J. Health Scope. 2016;5, e31336. https://www.magiran.com/paper/1580423?lang=en
Deublein M, Schubert M, Adey BT, García B, 2015. A Bayesian network model to predict accidents on Swiss highways. Infrastruct. Asset Manage. 2015;2, 145–158. DOI: 10.1680/jinam.15.00008
Rodriguez J, Jattin J, Soracipa Y. Probabilistic temporal prediction of the deaths caused by traffic in Colombia. Mortality caused by traffic prediction. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2020; 135:105332. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457519305603
Rodríguez J, Correa C, Ortiz A, Páez J, Cortés J, Soracipa Y, Ovalle A, Guzmán E, Castiblanco MA, Naranjo JD. MÉTODO DE “CAMINATA AL AZAR PROBABILÍSTICA” APLICADA A LA PREDICCIÓN DE MUERTES POR TRÁNSITO EN EL ESTADO DE FLORIDA. Medicina. 2019;41(1):18-27. https://revistamedicina.net/ojsanm/index.php/Medicina/article/view/1416
Smith SK. Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future. University of Florida [Internet]. 2005. Disponible en: https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/sites/default/files/Research%20Reports/FloridaPop2005_0.pdf
Lomia N, Berdzuli N, Sharashidze N, Sturua L, Pestvenidze E, Kereselidze M, Topuridze M, Stray-Pedersen B, Stray-Pedersen A. Socio-Demographic Determinants of Road Traffic Fatalities in Women of Reproductive Age in the Republic of Georgia: Evidence from the National Reproductive Age Mortality Study (2014). Int J Womens Health. 2020 Jul 13; 12:527-537. DOI: 10.2147/IJWH.S244437
Nagata T, Takamori A, Berg HY, Hasselberg M. Comparing the impact of socio-demographic factors associated with traffic injury among older road users and the general population in Japan. BMC Public Health. 2012;12:887. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-887
Einstein A. Principios de física teórica. En: Einstein A. Sobre la teoría de la relatividad y otras aportaciones científicas. Madrid: Sarpe; 1983:29-32.
Rodríguez J. Dynamical systems applied to dynamic variables of patients from the intensive care unit (ICU): Physical and mathematical mortality predictions on ICU. J Med Med Sci. 2015;6(8):209-220.https://www.interesjournals.org/articles/dynamical-systems-applied-to-dynamic-variables-of-patients-from-the-intensive-care-unit-icu-physical-and-mathematical-mo.pdf
Rodríguez J. Spatio-temporal probabilistic prediction of appearance and duration of malaria outbreaks in municipalities of Colombia. J Phys Conf Ser. 2019;1160:7. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1160/1/012018
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Ramírez LJ. A novel heart rate attractor for the prediction of cardiovascular disease. Informatics in Medicine Unlocked. 2019; 15:100174. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235291481930005X